Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Election 2024
Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, which will be held after ten years, are quite different from the 2014 elections. With the abrogation of Article 370, the special status of Jammu and Kashmir ended and it was bifurcated into two Union Territories. After this, in the process of delimitation, there is no more difference between the assembly seats of Jammu and Kashmir. Not only this, seats in the assembly are reserved for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. These reserved seats will play an important role in gaining power as kingmakers.
16 Assembly seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in Jammu and Kashmir. In which seven Assembly seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and nine for Scheduled Tribes. SC and ST reservation for the first time is showing great enthusiasm among the voters of this category. Whichever party succeeds in capturing these 16 reserved assembly seats will play a crucial role.
SC-ST reserved seats
Seven seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes in the Union Territory – Bishnah, Suchetgarh, Madh, Akhnoor, Ramgarh, Kathua and Ramnagar. Thus 9 seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes. It has Gulabgarh, Kokarnag, Rajouri, Thannamandi, Budhal, Surankot, Mendhar, Kangan and Gurez constituencies. Out of 16 reserved seats, 13 are from Jammu division and three seats are from Kashmir region. Kashmir has ST reserved seats while SC reserved seats are in Jammu.
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In terms of election results
If we look at the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the political mood of the reserved assembly seats can be well understood. The BJP won two of the five parliamentary seats, out of which it had a lead in six reserved assembly seats. Similarly, the National Conference got a lead in seven reserved assembly seats while the Congress got a lead in only two reserved seats and the Apani Party in one seat.
Which party won how many seats?
Out of the seven seats reserved for Scheduled Castes, the BJP was ahead in six seats and the Congress in one seat. Of the nine seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes, the National Conference won seven seats, the Congress one seat and the AP party one. In Jammu, the Congress got more votes than the BJP candidate in the Suchetgarh seat reserved for Scheduled Castes.
Equation of 13 Assembly seats
At the same time, if we look at the equation of 13 Assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes, five seats fall in Rajouri and Poonch districts. Both these areas have a large number of Pahari and Gurjar voters. In Jammu and Kashmir, both these communities come under Scheduled Tribes, but they are considered opposites of each other. After the abrogation of Article 370, the Modi government made a move to curry favor with the hill community by granting it Scheduled Tribe status. The decision is believed to have angered the Gurjar community towards the BJP. In such a situation, if the same resentment continues in the elections, then the tension may increase for the BJP.
Rajouri-Punch’s var equation
Especially in Rajouri-Poonch district reservation for Scheduled Tribes has changed the equations. Earlier there was no seat reservation here, but this time due to reservation, the dominance of Pahari and Gurjar community has increased here. Kashmir also has three seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes, with voters from the hill and Gurjar communities. In the Lok Sabha elections, the National Conference got the lead on these three seats. Not a single seat is reserved for Scheduled Castes in the Valley, all seven seats are in Jammu region.
Seats increased after delimitation
The political situation has changed in Jammu and Kashmir after delimitation. The number of assembly seats in the state has increased from 83 to 90. Of the seven seats that have increased since delimitation in Jammu and Kashmir, the assembly seats in Jammu region have increased from 37 to 43 and in Kashmir from 46 to 47. Now there is not much difference of seats in Jammu and Kashmir region. Jammu region is dominated by BJP while Kashmir region is dominated by regional parties.
For the first time reserved seats for ST
Seats have been reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) for the first time in the state. 16 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST). In which 7 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 9 for Scheduled Tribes. All seven seats reserved for SCs are in Jammu region, while out of 9 seats reserved for STs, 3 seats are in Kashmir region and the rest are in Jammu region. In this way, the target of winning 46 seats has to be set to form the government in the state.
