Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav and UP CM Yogi Adityanath.
Having lost in the Lok Sabha elections, Mayawati is preparing to pass the litmus test of the by-elections. Mayawati’s party, which usually stays away from by-elections, has announced to contest by-elections in the next 10 seats of UP. In a meeting with Bahujan Samaj Party leaders, Mayawati gave directions in this regard. Mayawati’s announcement to contest the by-election is being weighed on the scale of political gains and losses.
On the one hand, Mayawati’s exercise is being seen as strengthening the BSP, on the other hand, Behinji is trying to break the dominance of SP and BJP with this strategy. Mayawati’s move is being debated in UP political circles whether it will benefit or harm her.
If we look at the old data, Mayawati’s party has contested 4 assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat since 2019. Out of this, BJP benefited 3 times and SP 2 times.
When did Mayawati field candidates?
Being in the opposition, Mayawati announced to contest the by-election in Uttar Pradesh for the first time in 2019. This seat belonged to Jalalpore Assembly of Ambedkar Nagar. This seat fell vacant due to BSP’s Ritesh Pandey becoming an MP. SP fielded Subhash Rai from here while BSP gave ticket to Chhaya Verma. SP’s Subhash Rai won the election.
In the same year, Mayawati’s party also fielded candidates in the by-elections held in Barabanki’s Zaidpur and Mauman Goshi. In the 2019 by-elections, BSP gave tickets to Akhilesh Ambedkar from Zaidpur and Abdul Qayyum from Ghosi. SP was strong in both places.
However, the SP could register a victory only in Zaidpur. Here, Mayawati’s candidate has got only 18 thousand votes. However, Mayawati’s candidate certainly played Ghosi. Here, BJP’s Vijay Rajbhar defeated SP-backed independent candidate Sudhakar Singh. BSP’s Abdul Qayyum Ansari got more than 50 thousand votes, while the margin of defeat here was only 2 thousand.
In 2020, Mayawati’s party also fielded candidates in the Bangarmau assembly seat by-election in Unnao. Elections were held on the Bangarmau seat due to the resignation of MLA Kuldeep Sengar. BSP made Mahesh Prasad its candidate for this seat. Aarti Bajpai from Congress, Suresh Pal from SP and Shrikant Katiyar from BJP were in the fray.
The distribution of votes between the four parties directly benefited the BJP. BJP won this election easily. In 2022, Mayawati also fielded candidates in the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat by-election. The seat has fallen vacant due to the resignation of Akhilesh Yadav. SP has fielded Akhilesh’s cousin Dharmendra Yadav from Azamgarh while BJP has fielded Dinesh Yadav.
Mayawati gave ticket to powerful leader Shah Alam Guddu Jamali from here. Because of Jamali, Azamgarh election became triangular and BJP won. In this election, BJP’s Dinesh Lal got 312,768 votes, SP’s Dharmendra Yadav got 3,47,204 votes and Guddu Jamali got 1,79,839 votes.
Who benefited from the elephant not being in the field?
By-elections have been held on 6 Lok Sabha and 25 assembly seats during Yogi Raj. Mayawati fielded candidates in only one of the six Lok Sabha seats (Azamgarh). Mayawati did not field candidates on the remaining 5 seats. These include Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana (2018), Rampur and Mainpuri (202).
Not fielding Mayawati’s candidates gave Mayawati 4 seats and BJP 1 seat. Understand this with an example – In 2018, SP won the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha by-election by 21801 votes. In 2014, BSP got 1 lakh 76 thousand votes in this seat.
Similarly, BJP lost from Phulpur seat by 59 thousand votes in 2018 by-election. In 2014, BSP got 1 lakh 63 thousand votes here. A similar situation was seen in Kairana. Here Tawassum Hasan from the opposition alliance won by 44 thousand votes on the RLD symbol. In 2014, BSP got 1 lakh 60 thousand votes in Kaira seat.
Mayawati lost two consecutive by-elections
In 1984, Mayawati contested from Kaira seat on Bahujan Samaj Party symbol, but Mayawati did not win the election. A year later, the Lok Sabha by-election was held on the Bijnor seat. Mayawati also filed her candidature from here. However, he could not win here either. Meera of Congress has won the Bijnor seat. Ram Vilas Paswan stood second.
In 1987, a by-election was announced for the Haridwar seat. Mayawati reached Haridwar to contest the elections, but could not win here either. In this election, R Singh of Congress got about 1 lakh 49 thousand votes and Mayawati about 1 lakh 25 thousand votes.
A summary of the 10 seats where by-elections have been held
The 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh which are to be held by-election include Katehari of Ambedkar Nagar, Milkipur of Faizabad, Sadar seat of Ghaziabad, Shishamau of Kanpur, Phulpur of Prayagraj, Karhal of Mainpuri, Kundarki of Moradabad, Mirapur of Muzaffarnagar, Majwa. Well seats of Mirzapur and Aligarh are included.
Elections can be held in October-November on all these seats. In 2022, SP won Katehari, Milkipur, Karhal, Sheeshmau and Kundarki. BJP was in possession of Ghaziabad Sadar, Kher and Phulpur. Majwa seat was with Nishad and Mirapur seat was with RLD.
