Growth of Indian economy
India’s growth rate is the highest when compared to the large countries of the world. Recently, the RBI estimated the country’s growth rate at 7.2 percent in the current financial year. While in the last financial year, India’s growth was more than 8 percent. On the other hand, the World Bank’s estimate is 6.6 percent and the IMF’s estimate is 7 percent.
On the other hand, the Prime Minister of India has set a goal to develop the country by 2047. According to estimates, the country’s GDP at that time could amount to 30 trillion dollars. Today, fast forward a little more than 28 years. Yes, we are talking about the year 2075. What will the country’s GDP be in that year? According to the American multinational financial services and banking company Goldman Sachs, by that time the country will be the second largest economy in the world.
This means that it will leave the current economic superpower, the United States, behind in terms of economy. There is another estimate that during that time the size of the three largest GDPs in the world will probably exceed 50 trillion dollars. Let’s try to understand this estimate by Goldman Sachs. Let’s try to figure out together what the situation will be for China in 2075.
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Goldman Sachs estimates
According to Goldman Sachs estimates, India’s economy could reach $52.5 trillion by 2075. What’s special is that by then India will be the second largest economy in the world. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, the size of the country’s GDP will increase by about 14 times over the next 50 years.
According to estimates, the current GDP of the country is over 3.75 trillion dollars. It is estimated that in the next 4 years it will rise to 5 trillion rupees. On the other hand, the GDP of the United States will be 51.5 trillion dollars in the year 2075. Which is 1 trillion dollars less than the estimated GDP size of India. What is special is that currently the GDP of the United States is 29 trillion dollars. This means that the growth of the US GDP will be less than double in the next 50 years.
Where will China be?
According to Goldman Sachs estimates, China will occupy the number one position in terms of GDP in 2075. Yes, the size of its GDP is estimated at 57 trillion dollars. This will be more than 4 trillion dollars compared to the estimated figures for India and more than 5 trillion dollars compared to the GDP of the United States. The special thing is that in the next 50 years the size of China’s GDP may triple. The special thing is that in 2075 the GDP of the three economies of the country will amount to more than 50 trillion dollars.
This is also an assumption.
On the other hand, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Krishnamurthy V Subramanian on Monday said that if the central and state governments implement necessary policies to take India’s economic growth to 8 per cent, then the country will earn $55 trillion a year by 2047. An economy of Rs.
Speaking at the launch of his book India at 100 at the Indian School of Business (ISB), Subramanian said the goal of becoming a $55 trillion economy may seem bold, but it is achievable.
He also said that India’s private debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was 58 per cent in the year 2020, which is about six decades behind advanced economies and these countries are now at 200 per cent. However, he said that unprecedented work is being done in terms of financial inclusion through schemes like Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana.
What formula did you give him?
The senior IMF official said that this target certainly seems bold, but the power of compounding makes it possible. If we are able to register growth at the rate of eight per cent, we can actually become a $55 trillion economy. When asked the reason for this belief, Subramanian, who has been the chief economic advisor to the Indian government, said that my belief is based on the rule of 72. According to this, with a 12 per cent growth rate in dollar terms (an 8 per cent GDP growth and a one per cent depreciation of the rupee against the dollar after adding 8 per cent GDP growth and five per cent inflation), the GDP doubles every six years.
GDP will double four times
He said that in the next 24 years from 2023, the $3.25 trillion economy will double four times and reach $52 trillion by 2047. Giving the example of Japan, he said that its economy was $215 billion in 1970 but it reached $5.1 trillion in 1995. He said that apart from physical infrastructure, India also needs to invest in human capital, improve healthcare and create digital capital.
