AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi.
Voting is going on today for the elections to be held on the 11 Legislative Council seats of Maharashtra. This MLC election is no less than a litmus test not only for BJP and Congress but also for the NDA vs India alliance, as neither alliance has the numbers game to win all its candidates. To avoid such horse-trading, all parties have kept their MLAs in five-star hotels for the last three days and will reach the Assembly directly for voting. In such a situation, all eyes are on Asaduddin Owaisi and Bachchu Kadu MLAs, because these two leaders are the real kingmakers of this election?
12 candidates are in the fray for 11 Legislative Council seats. BJP has fielded five candidates, Ajit Pawar and Shinde-led NCP and Shiv Sena have fielded two candidates each, while Congress of India Alliance, Uddhav’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP have one candidate each. Pankaja Munde from BJP, Dr. Parinay Phuke, Amit Borkhe, Yogesh Tillekar and Sadabhau Khot are MLCs in the election. Shinde-led Shiv Sena has fielded former MPs Bhavna Gawli and Kripal Tumane, while Ajit Pawar’s NCP has fielded Shivajirao Garje and Rajesh Whitaker.
Meanwhile, in the MLC elections, Pragya Satav from Congress, Milind Narvekar from Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP are contesting against Jayant Patil. Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray have taken charge. Congress is certain to win one MLC seat, but it will not be easy to win the electoral battle without the support of Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Uddhav Thackeray’s party has 16 MLAs while Sharad Pawar has 12 MLAs. Thus, if Uddhav needs the support of other MLAs, Sharad Pawar will have to gather the support of 11 MLAs.
Who needs how many MLAs in a numbers game?
The Maharashtra Legislative Assembly has a total of 288 members but currently has 274 MLAs. In this sense, to win an MLC seat, the support of at least 23 MLAs on a first preference basis is required. NDA has other smaller parties with 203 MLAs, BJP with 103, NCP with 40 and Shiv Sena with 37, but it needs the support of 207 MLAs to win all its 9 candidates. In this way the support of additional votes of 4 MLAs has to be collected.
At the same time, the Bharatiya Gathbandhan Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) have 65 MLAs, 69 if SP and Left MLAs are also added. India Alliance is getting enough votes to make all three of its candidates victorious, but MLAs like Nawab Malik and Zeeshan Siddiqui are standing by Ajit Pawar. In such a situation, the Indian coalition will have to arrange the support of additional MLAs to secure its three seats. In such a situation, the role of Asaduddin Owaisi and Bachchu Kadu’s party MLAs becomes important.
Owaisi and Bachchu Kadu are in lead roles
Small parties have come to play the most important role due to the fact that there is no numbers game in both the NDA and the Bharat Alliance in the Legislative Council elections. The NDA has the support of Independent MLAs as well as MNS, Jan Surajya Shakti, Farmers and Bharatiya Karkarta Party and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, which together have the support of 203 MLAs. Even after this NDA needs the support of four MLAs to make 9 candidates victorious.
SP has two MLAs in Maharashtra. Apart from this, there are two MLAs from AIMIM and two from Bachchu Kaduni Prahar Janshakti Party. The SP is part of India’s alliance, but party president and Maharashtra MLA Abu Asim Azmi has yet to reveal his cards. Similarly, Owaisi too has not made any clear announcement yet. Apart from this, Bachchu Kadu’s strategy regarding Prahar Jan Shakti Party is not clear. If the India Alliance is not able to secure the support of these parties, it will not be easy for it to win all three seats of its quota. In such a situation this party is the real kingmaker, in which it can be assumed that the SP will go with the Bharat alliance, but what role will the party MLAs of Owaisi and Bachchu Kadu play?
