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Lok Sabha elections have changed the number game in Bihar, will BJP be able to retain its number 1 status in the by-elections?

Nita Yadav

By Nita Yadav

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PM Modi, JP Nadda and Amit Shah.

After the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, all eyes are now on the assembly by-elections. The 2024 election results have changed the game of Bihar assembly numbers. Four MLAs from the state became MPs and the resignation of one MLA has made the BJP the single largest party in the assembly. The number of MLAs of RJD is now 77 while the number of MLAs of BJP is 78. JDU is left with 44 MLAs due to Bima Bharti’s resignation letter. The position of number-1 in the Bihar Assembly is to be tested in the by-election. BJP will have to struggle in the by-elections to retain its political position in the state, while RJD will have to win its seats at any cost.

Of the five assembly constituencies in Bihar where by-elections are scheduled, two have fallen vacant due to the resignation of RJD MLAs. Apart from this, one seat each from the JDU-ML-Hindustan Awam Morcha quota has fallen vacant. By-elections are to be held for Gaya, Jehanabad, Arah, Buxar and Rupauli assembly seats. MLAs from four of those seats have now become Lok Sabha MPs, due to which they have resigned. Bima Bharti, MLA from Rupauli seat of JDU, resigned from the assembly membership and contested from Purnia seat on RJD ticket.

By-election on Rupauli seat on July 10

Information about the four assembly seats that fell vacant due to MLAs becoming MPs was sent to the Election Commission, now the Election Commission will decide the date for the by-elections. However, there is a by-election on July 10 for the Rupauli seat, which fell vacant due to Bima Bharti’s resignation. It is believed that if RJD can bet on Bima Bharti from Rupauli seat, JDU will now field a new face. Similarly, a political battle will be played on the remaining four seats, in which the BJP has also prepared to enter with full force.

BJP has become the largest party in Bihar for the first time

In 2020, HAM leader Jitanram Manjhi became MLA from Imamganj seat. Sudama Prasad of CPI(ML) was MLA from Tarri seat. RJD’s Surendra Prasad Yadav was elected as MLA from Belagunj seat and Sudhakar Singh from Ramgarh seat. All four leaders have now been elected as Lok Sabha MPs, reducing the number of RJD MLAs from 79 to 77 and BJP becoming number-one in the assembly with 78 MLAs. BJP has become the largest party in Bihar for the first time, due to which it is now a challenge to retain this position.

Who is strong in the assembly?

If we look at the arithmetic of the assembly, currently NDA, BJP has 78 MLAs, JDU has 44, we have 3 and an independent. Thus, NDA has a total of 126 MLAs. At the same time, RJD, which is part of Bharat Gatbandhan, has 77 MLAs, Left parties have 15 and Congress has 19. Thus the Bharat Gathbandhan has the support of 111 MLAs, but three MLAs have rebelled and sided with the NDA. Thus, Bharat Gathbandhan currently has the support of 108 MLAs.

Checkmate to be the number one party

After the 2020 assembly election results in Bihar, RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, but could not reach the throne of power. BJP became the second largest party with 74 MLAs. For the first time, BJP emerged as a bigger party than JDU in Bihar by staying with NDA. Since then, the BJP has been trying to become the single largest party in the state, for which it has inducted three MLAs from Mukesh Sahni’s party VIP. This left the BJP with 78 MLAs, but the RJD on the other hand took four of the five MLAs it won from Owaisi’s party AIMIM. Due to which the number of RJD MLAs has reached 79. Thus, RJD remained the number one party.

The numbers game changed after the Lok Sabha elections

After the Lok Sabha elections, the number game of the Bihar Assembly has changed. BJP is on the first position in the assembly with 78 MLAs while RJD is second with 77 MLAs. There are by-elections to five seats in the state, which will determine the actual tally of figures. BJP is trying to retain its number one position at any cost, while RJD is trying to regain its position.

It is believed that Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party can field its candidate from Imamganj seat on the basis of seat sharing in the by-election. Similarly JDU can try its luck from Rupauli seat. Two seats of RJD quota and one seat of MLA are falling vacant. In 2020, BJP contested from Ramgarh and Tarir seats while JDU fielded its candidate from Belagunj seat. In such a situation, this formula can become the seat sharing formula for the NDA in the by-elections. BJP can field its candidates in Ramgarh and Tarri seats while JDU can try its luck in Belagunj seat.

Out of the five seats in which by-elections are being held in Bihar, BJP can contest two, JDU two and Manjhi’s party one seat from the NDA camp. At the same time, from the Indian alliance, RJD can contest on three seats, MLA on one seat and Congress on one seat. To remain the number one party in the assembly, the RJD will have to win its quota of seats, while the BJP will have to try to maintain its position by winning its seats. Not only that, next year in 2025 assembly elections are also going to be held. In such a situation, the by-election is nothing short of a litmus test for the willingness of both coalitions to gain an edge before the main election.

Nita Yadav

Nita Yadav

I am Nita Yadav, specializing in writing about politics and breaking national news. My focus is on delivering insightful and timely perspectives on these crucial topics, aiming to inform and engage my readers effectively.

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