Weather models fail to predict rainfall in Delhi.
Heavy rains lashed Delhi on Friday morning, leaving posh areas inundated. It also includes Lutyens Delhi, where many ministers and MPs reside. On this, meteorologists have said that the forecast model has failed to predict the weather event in Delhi. A record 228.1 mm rainfall was recorded during this period.
This amount is more than three times the June average of 74.1 mm and the heaviest rainfall for the month since 1936. An India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said monsoon winds collided with parts of a western disturbance, causing heavy rains in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.
Rain Forecast in Delhi
Some scientists believe that the storm may have caused heavy rains in North Delhi. On June 26, the IMD predicted light to moderate rains and thunderstorms with gusty winds on June 28.
Rain will increase in North India
The Met department said on Thursday afternoon that the system is expanding from a cyclonic flow over central Gujarat to the western part of Bihar at the lower troposphere level. In a weekly weather update on IMD’s YouTube page, scientist Soma Sen Roy said the system is bringing moisture to north and central India. He said the east-west flow is likely to strengthen this week and rains will increase in north India.
There is no chance of heavy rain
The extended range forecast released by the IMD on Thursday night has predicted widespread light to moderate rains with thunder and lightning over northwest and east India during the next five days. The IMD had also predicted heavy rains in Delhi on June 29 and June 30, but no one expected torrential rains on Friday morning.
Heavy rain at some places
At 4:58 am on Friday, the IMD issued an alert saying that during the next two hours, thunderstorms will occur across Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR), Sonepat, Kharkhoda, Jhajjar, Sohna, Palwal, Baraut, Baghpat. , Khekra, Pilkhua and Secunderabad will experience light to moderate rain with heavy rain at some places and wind speed of 20-40 kmph.
Arrival of Monsoon in Delhi
The IMD later said that the Safdarjung observatory recorded 148.5 mm of rainfall between 2:30 am and 5:30 am, indicating that significant rainfall had already occurred before the IMD issued the alert. Further, the IMD announced the arrival of Monsoon in Delhi on Friday afternoon, while less than 15 hours later it predicted that the initial rain-bringing system would reach Delhi in two to three days.
Thunderstorm forecast
An IMD official, on condition of anonymity, said that the eastern branch of the monsoon did not bring much rain as far as West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The East Branch Monsoon was advancing at a slow pace. But suddenly a wave came from Madhya Pradesh. No one expected such a large amount of moisture. The official said the model could not catch him. Also in the evening clouds started coming and increased in intensity with time. It is not easy to predict storms in advance.
