Asaduddin Owaisi-Prashant Kishore
Bihar assembly elections are still more than a year away, but the political chessboard is now laid. Since the Lok Sabha elections, BJP, RJD and other parties have started trying to improve their equations. At the same time, Prashant Kishor (PK), who entered the political arena from election strategist, has also revealed his cards. PK will announce his party on Gandhi Jayanti (October 2). Prashant Kishor has decided to do Muslim politics in state politics on the lines of Asaduddin Owaisi.
Prashant Kishore has said that he will field his candidates on all the seats in the assembly elections to be held in Bihar next year. It has been announced to field candidates from the Muslim community for 75 assembly seats out of the total 243 seats in Bihar. PK has talked about giving tickets to Muslims in assembly elections according to their population. Muslim representation is also the political agenda of AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, who has been trying to establish political roots in Bihar for nine years.
In 2020, Owaisi definitely got success in Seemanchal area, but due to RJD and Congress alliance, he could not give him political importance. Now Prashant Kishor also wants to try a political trick on Muslim votes, while CM Nitish Kumar is also trying his best to keep him tied to JDU. In the 2025 assembly elections, a check-mate game may break out between political parties over Muslim votes. So how has Muslim politics been in Bihar so far and how much influence has it had?
Bihar has about 17.7 percent Muslim population
Bihar has about 17.7 percent Muslim population, who have the power to make or break the game of any party politically. After independence, Muslims have been the traditional voters of the Congress in the state. Muslims in Bihar were with Congress till 1970. Congress prepared a vote bank of Muslim-Brahmin-Dalit voters. After the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, a period of change in Muslim politics began in Bihar. In those days Urdu speaking Bihari migrants were killed in many places. In those days, Muslim leaders like Ghulam Sarwar, Taqi Rahim, Zafar Imam and Shah Mushtaq raised this issue and stirred up anti-Congress sentiments among Muslims.
It also affected the Muslim psyche during the JP agitation, which led to the formation of the Janata government in 1977 under the leadership of Karpuri Thakur. This was the first occasion in Bihar that Muslims voted against the Congress. However, Muslims made a comeback to the Congress in the 1980s, but joined the RJD in the 90s after the Ram Mandir movement and the political emergence of Lalu Prasad Yadav. The communal riots in Bhagalpur in 1989 were the main reason Muslims joined Lalu Yadav. This once again alienated the Muslims from the Congress.
Lalu ruled by creating my equation
Lalu Yadav ruled for a long time creating a Muslim-Yadav equation, but the political picture changed after Nitish Kumar came to power in Bihar in 2005. Nitish Kumar played the backward Muslim game to increase his political base in Muslim votes. Because of this, a section of Muslims joined Nitish’s favor and in the 2010 Bihar assembly elections, the JDU got 40 percent of the Muslim vote despite being with the BJP.
In the 2015 elections, Muslims voted overwhelmingly for the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance, but in 2017, after Nitish severed ties with the Mahagathbandhan and joined the BJP, Muslims became disillusioned with Nitish. After Narendra Modi became PM, Owaisi started to find his footing through Muslim politics in Bihar, but his first breakthrough came in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when his candidate got nearly 2.5 lakh votes from the Kishanganj seat. It was from here that Owaisi got political hope in Bihar and he managed to get better success in the assembly elections held a year later.
A big difference was seen in the 2020 assembly elections
The 2020 assembly elections in Bihar politics saw a big difference in the voting pattern of the Muslim community. Asaduddin Owaisi’s party made its mark by winning five seats in Bihar’s Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region and finishing second in three others. Apart from this, RJD, Congress and Left Party Muslims were preferred in other areas of Bihar. According to CSDS data, 77 percent of Muslim voters voted for the Grand Alliance in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, while 11 percent of Muslim votes went to Owaisi’s AIMIM.
In the 2020 assembly elections, 12 percent of Muslim votes were shared between parties like JDU, BJP and BSP. The JDU gave tickets to 11 Muslim candidates, but all of them faced defeat. This was the first time since the formation of JDU that no Muslim from Nitish’s party could win. In such a situation, Nitish Kumar included MLAs won from BSP to make Muslim ministers in his cabinet. Four of the five Muslim MLAs won from Owaisi’s party joined the RJD.
In 47 seats, Muslim voters are in a critical position
The number of assembly seats in Bihar is 243. Of these, 47 seats are where Muslim voters are in a critical position. The Muslim population in these areas is 20 to 40 percent or even more. Bihar has 11 seats where Muslim voters are more than 40 percent and 7 seats have more than 30 percent. Apart from this, 29 assembly seats have 20 to 30 percent Muslim voters.
In the 2015 assembly elections, 24 Muslim MLAs won out of the total 243 seats in Bihar. In which 11 MLAs from RJD, 6 from Congress, 5 from JDU, 1 from BJP and 1 from CPI (ML) won. The BJP fielded two Muslim candidates, one of whom won. After the year 2000, the highest number of Muslim MLAs won. 19 Muslim MLAs were elected in the 2020 assembly elections, a decrease from the 2015 elections.
AIMIM won 5 seats in 2020 elections.
AIMIM has achieved a significant victory in the 2020 assembly elections. The party has won 5 seats. As for the Muslim candidates who won from other parties, 8 from RJD, 4 from Congress, one from CPI (ML) and one from BSP. That means a total of 19 Muslim faces have been elected in the assembly of 243.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the JDU gave a ticket to a Muslim from Kishanganj, but he could not win. Congress fielded two Muslims as candidates and both managed to win. RJD gave tickets to Muslims in two seats, but could not win. The voting pattern in the assembly elections clearly shows that Muslims did not support BJP candidates and JDU also suffered the consequences of their alliance.
PK-Owaisi is working on the strategy of Muslim votes
Everyone from Owaisi to Prashant Kishor is working on a strategy to garner Muslim votes, but the way it is seen is a direct fight between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led All India Alliance. Muslims side with RJD-Congress-Left to defeat BJP. In such a scenario, the biggest question is whether it will be a big challenge for both Owaisi and PK to give tickets to Muslims and get their votes?
