Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi
In Uttar Pradesh, the pairing of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was a hit in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Out of 80 Lok Sabha seats of UP, SP has managed to win 37 seats and Congress 6 seats. The BJP did not fare well against the Rahul-Akhilesh duo and fell from 62 to 33. BJP is not liking the pair of ‘two boys’ in UP, due to which first PM Modi and now BJP state president Bhupendra Chaudhary have tried to crack the friendship between SP and Congress.
In the Lok Sabha, PM Modi talked about SP being wary of Congress, now Bhupendra Chaudhary said that SP president Akhilesh Yadav should be wary of Congress. Congress is eyeing the vote bank of the party. Bhupendra Chaudhary calling the Congress a scumbag said that the Congress is keeping an eye on the Muslim vote bank of the SP. In such a situation, the question arises that if the Congress is really eyeing the vote bank of the party, how long can the duo of two boys stay together in UP?
Rahul is busy giving life to UP Congress
By making the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat his workplace, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi has started giving political life to the Congress, which was on a ventilator for three and a half decades in Uttar Pradesh politics. A glimpse of this can be seen in the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Hathras after becoming Leader of the Opposition and subsequent letter to CM Yogi Adityanath. Rahul Gandhi has visited UP thrice in a month, sending a clear message that he has his eye on state politics, while the SP is also working towards expanding its party across the country after the 2024 results.
SP plans to contest Maharashtra and Haryana elections
The SP plans to enter the political fray by becoming part of the All India Alliance in the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, but whether the Congress will provide seats for it is a big question. The SP is seeking 10 seats in Maharashtra and five in Haryana, in exchange for which it plans to give by-elections in UP and seats in 2027. The SP leadership has also explained to the Congress its philosophy for the future – ‘give with one hand, take with the other’. In such a situation, it is clear that if Congress does not give seats to SP, it will not give seats in UP.
Rahul’s efforts to maintain political balance
However, Rahul Gandhi is trying to strike a political balance with the SP, for which he has to maintain political chemistry with Akhilesh Yadav from Parliament to social media. The reason behind this is that the way the election results in UP have gone in favor of the India Alliance has kept the BJP away from the majority figure. In such a situation, BJP is trying to crack the friendship between SP and Congress, on the other hand, SP and Congress are trying to increase their political base in the state. Rahul Gandhi’s attempt is to once again unite the Congress’s fragmented vote bank in Uttar Pradesh.
In the 2024 elections, Rahul Gandhi seems to be getting success to a large extent. The traditional vote bank of Congress was once Dalit-Muslim-Brahmin. With the help of these three, the Congress remained in power in UP for a long time, but in the nineties, the Ram Mandir movement and the politics of social justice spoiled its equation. Congress has been in exile in power for three-and-a-half decades, but the results of the 2024 elections have shown its way.
Raised hopes of a resurgence in UP
A clear Muslim vote for the Bharat Alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the leaning of the Dalit community on the constitutional issue have given the Congress hope of a resurgence in UP. In the 2022 assembly elections in UP, the Congress got 2.33 percent of the votes, but it increased to 6.39 percent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections two years later. After establishing the political base of the Congress in UP, Rahul Gandhi is active and plans to rebuild the Congress.
Rahul’s activism will add to the uneasiness of political parties as the political ground that the SP finds itself standing in Uttar Pradesh was once that of the Congress. After the Babri demolition, the Muslim community moved away from the Congress and joined the SP. Since then, a large section of Muslims have been associated with the SP, but after Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Join Bharat Yatra’, the hearts of Muslims yearn for the Congress. Rahul Gandhi seems to be raising his voice on the issue of Muslims. The result is that in 2024, the Muslim community has voted overwhelmingly in favor of a Congress-led India alliance.
Rahul’s activism increased Akhilesh’s anxiety
It is believed that whichever political party the Congress had formed an alliance with in UP, the Muslims would have leaned towards that party. Thus, Rahul Gandhi’s activism may add to Akhilesh Yadav’s political anxiety, as the entire politics of the SP hinges on the support of Muslims. If the Congress succeeds in adding Muslim votes, it could be a cause for concern for the SP. So it is believed that Akhilesh Yadav does not want to give more political space to Congress in UP.
In the 2024 elections, the SP gave 17 of the 80 seats in UP to the Congress, seats that the Congress had not won for 40 years. After the results of the Lok Sabha elections, the situation has changed and the Congress is busy expanding its political base. Congress is going to start its political campaign in UP from the month of August and preparations are underway for the 2027 Lok Sabha elections. In such a scenario, the sharing of assembly seats in districts like Saharanpur and Rae Bareli could become a political hurdle in the friendship between Congress and SP.
Congress can claim seats in 2027
In the 2022 assembly elections, the SP managed to win four out of five seats in the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituency and lost one seat by a narrow margin. Now Rahul Gandhi becoming MP from Rae Bareli and his vigorous tour has filled the Congress workers with enthusiasm and Congress can claim seats in 2027. In such a situation, will the SP give up its won seats to the Congress? Apart from this, after the way Imran Masood became an MP in Saharanpur, the restlessness of the Muslim leaders of the SP has increased. Imran Masood has a figure of thirty-six with Muslim leaders of the SP. In such a situation there may be hurdles in seat sharing in assembly elections and seat sharing with Congress will not be easy.
Trouble over seats in by-elections
Due to the Lok Sabha elections, by-elections are to be held on 10 assembly seats. The Congress is demanding three to four seats in the by-elections while the SP is willing to give up only two seats, but has made a condition that it should be given seats in Haryana and Maharashtra. In such a situation, how long will the friendship between Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul last in Uttar Pradesh, as both the parties have similar vote banks. SP wants to retain its grip on Muslim votes at any cost while Congress is desperate to be pro-Muslim.
