RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar
From JDU to RJD, five-time MLA Bima Bharti was fielded from Bihar’s Rupauli assembly seat. In the Rupauli by-election after the Lok Sabha, he also bet on Bima Bharti, but both times the RJD not only faced defeat from an independent candidate but also finished third. Bima Bharti’s defeat in the Rupauli by-election is a wake-up call for the RJD, as the by-election was being considered as the semi-final of the 2025 elections.
After Purnia Lok Sabha elections, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s traditional vote bank has completely slipped in Rupauli by-election. In Rupauli, Muslims are seen standing in support of JDU and Independents instead of RJD. The confidence of the very backward class still rests on Nitish Kumar’s JDU, without breaking it, RJD’s political path in Bihar will not be easy.
No impact on JDU votes in Rupauli
JDU chief spokesperson and former minister Neeraj Kumar said that the slogan of participation by numbers is an illusion of RJD. CM Nitish Kumar has always given due respect to Gangauta, who hails from a very backward community. Because of this, Bima Bharti became an MLA three times on a JDU ticket and also became a minister, but she faced defeat as soon as she entered the election fray from the RJD. The JDU may not have won the by-election, but it got the same number of votes as in 2020, while RJD’s votes declined. From this it is clear that the most backward class is not trusting RJD.
Bima Bharti got fewer votes than CPI in 2020
The CPI contested the 2020 assembly elections under the RuPaul Grand Alliance. The CPI candidate got 40 thousand votes, but the RJD contested the by-election in 2024. Bima Bharti of RJD could get only 30 thousand votes. In this way, he got 10 thousand less votes than the CPI candidate. Political analysts believe that most of the voters in Rupali belong to the extremely backward classes. About 30 percent of voters belong to extremely backward castes, who are not able to trust the RJD. The result of this is that CPI got more votes than RJD in Rupauli. Thus the result of Rupauli by-election should not be limited to Rupauli but this message is for entire Bihar.
Tejaswi changed the strategy by creating an A-to-Z party
RJD’s politics in Bihar is Yadav-Muslim centric, but Tejashwi Yadav made efforts to include people from the upper caste community to make it an A-to-Z party. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the RJD’s focus remained on the non-Yadav OBC votes, particularly the Kori caste. The RJD gave tickets to five Kori community leaders in the Lok Sabha elections, one of whom managed to win, but none from the Most Backward Classes.
Bihar has the highest 63 percent OBCs, of which 27 percent belong to backward classes and 36 percent to extremely backward castes. In this context, the most important role in the politics of Bihar is that of the most backward castes. The most backward classes include about 114 castes. Once the OBC was Lalu Yadav’s vote bank, but RJD’s pro-Yadav politics alienated the OBC from him. RJD failed to attract the most backward classes due to its OBIS and Muslim vote bank, and Nitish Kumar took advantage of this.
Formed a political base by uniting the minor castes
Nitish Kumar has built his political base against the RJD in Bihar by including all the smaller and most backward castes, while in UP, the BJP has also managed to re-establish itself on the same formula. BJP has worked to give leadership to all the most backward castes, which Kanshi Ram did in UP and Karpuri Thakur in Bihar. Established political parties in Bihar politics can now front different caste leaders to do their politics.
Although the Most Backward Castes constitute 36 percent of the population, they constitute only 7 percent of the MLAs in the Bihar Assembly, but this situation has changed since the Caste Census. Nitish created two new caste categories during his 2005-10 rule. One of them was Mahadalit and the other was extremely backward. JDU was able to make this extremely backward class its main vote bank and RJD could not make it its vote bank. The Rupauli by-election results have once again proved that JDU has more hold over the extremely backward class than the RJD.
36 percent extremely backward votes in Bihar
In Bihar, 36 percent of the most backward classes include all castes. In which 114 castes like Kevat, Blacksmith, Kumhar, Kanu, Dhimar, Rakwar, Turha, Batham, Manjhi, Prajapati, Suthar, Goldsmith, Kahar, Dhanuk, Nonia, Rajbhar, Barber, Chandravanshi, Malla come in extremely backward class. Mallah’s population is about 7 percent, which the RJD has managed to make inroads through Mukesh Sahni. Apart from this, Nitish Kumar has gained hold over other extremely backward classes.
In addition to poor economic and social conditions, political representation is very low, despite being a large segment of the population. Minor castes, whose population is small, but become very important as fillers in elections. When it combines with other vote banks, it becomes a big force. Nitish gets its benefit in Bihar.
Vote shifts with the help of Nitish
When Nitish Kumar contested the 2015 elections with the RJD, votes from the extreme backward classes were mobilized, but when the JDU contested the 2020 assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections with the BJP, it was in favor of the NDA. One thing is clear from this that with the help of Nitish Kumar the votes of the most backward class are changed. In such a scenario, if the RJD wants to carve its way to power in Bihar, is it not possible without targeting the most backward classes?
