Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024
The political chessboard for the Maharashtra assembly elections has begun. The BJP has decided on alliance partners, but the seat-sharing formula has not been decided. BJP has set Mission-160 goals in this election, but this will be possible only when the elections are contested openly. Given the way NCP and Shiv Sena are demanding seats for themselves, how many seats does the BJP decide in seat bargaining?
BJP will contest the elections along with CM Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP and some other smaller parties. Amit Shah has made a strategy to contest the elections by meeting with the core group of BJP in Mumbai. Meanwhile, there was a discussion with BJP leaders regarding seat sharing with allied parties. Now after the state assembly, seat sharing formula between Ajit Pawar’s NCP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and BJP will be approved in Delhi. In such a situation, everyone is watching how many seats BJP will contest this time.
Pattern of last assembly elections
If we look at the pattern of BJP’s fight in the last three assembly elections, the situation has changed a lot before and after 2014. Before 2014 BJP was in the role of younger brother in Maharashtra but now it is in the role of elder brother. In 2009, out of 288 assembly seats in the state, BJP contested 119 seats and Shiv Sena fielded candidates in 160 seats. Earlier in 2004, BJP contested on 111 seats and Shiv Sena on 163 seats. Thus BJP is contesting on less seats while Shiv Sena is contesting on more seats, but the situation changed after Narendra Modi became PM in 2014.
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BJP has become CM for the first time
In the 2014 assembly elections, the alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena broke and both parties contested the elections separately. BJP realized its political strength when it contested the elections alone. In 2014, the BJP fielded its candidates on 260 seats, out of which it won 122 seats. For the first time, BJP crossed the mark of winning 100 seats in Maharashtra and also succeeded in making its own Chief Minister for the first time.
The coalition suffered losses
In 2019, when the BJP and the Shiv Sena contested the elections together, the BJP played the role of the elder brother and the Shiv Sena played the role of the younger brother. BJP fielded candidates in 164 of the state’s 288 seats, while Shiv Sena contested in 124 seats. The BJP managed to win 105 seats out of its quota of 164 seats, while finishing second on 55 seats and third on 4 seats. Thus the BJP suffered losses in alliance while it gained by contesting elections alone.
Distribution of seats in assembly elections
BJP has its own political base in 240 seats in Maharashtra, but it cannot prove effective due to opposition unity. So BJP has been forced to form an alliance. BJP is running the government along with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, out of 48 parliamentary seats in the state, BJP contested 28, Shiv Sena 15, NCP 4 and Rashtriya Samaj Party one. Seats were shared between the three on this formula. It is believed that seats can be distributed in the assembly elections on this basis, but the parties of Ajit Pawar and Shinde are not ready.
Demand for seats
Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is seeking 100 to 110 seats while Ajit Pawar’s NCP is seeking 60 to 70 seats. Out of the 288 seats in Maharashtra, if the BJP gives its preferred seats to Shinde and Ajit Pawar, it will have only 100 to 110 seats left to contest the assembly elections. BJP will never agree with this formula. BJP contested 164 assembly seats in 2019, out of which it won 105 seats.
Seats according to strength
If the 28 Lok Sabha seats contested by the BJP in 2024 are converted into Assembly seats, there will be 168 seats. Thus BJP plans to contest elections on 160 seats. BJP leaders have set a target of winning elections in around 160 seats in Maharashtra. Party leaders say that during seat distribution, seats will be given to allies Shiv Sena and NCP based on their strength and chances of winning.
Agree on seat sharing
BJP knows that if it contests in less than 160 seats, its victory figure will be less than 100. BJP is busy multiplying all these. In such a situation, BJP is looking for a way to give seats to Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, in which it can consider giving 70 seats to Shiv Sena and leaving 60 seats for NCP. Apart from this BJP can give 8 seats to small parties. In this situation BJP will have only 150 seats left to contest. BJP wants to stay as big brother in NDA, but agreeing on seat sharing is not easy.
